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Ogun 2019: Amosun’s return to NASS, guaranteeing the Yewa-Awori agenda by Omooba Damilare

Published

7 years ago

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As the 2019 general elections draw near, permutation, calculation and realignment become the order of the day, friends are turning foes, just like many foes are sheathing their swords and embracing instantaneous friendship. That’s how our politics is in this part of the world; there is never a permanent friend, neither do you find a rigid enmity – what remains sacrosanct is interest.
 
Just like every two- term governor in Nigeria, the executive Governor of Ogun state, Sen. Ibikunle Amosun, FCA CON, having upped the ante of governance with the reawakening of a dying state with massive infrastructural development, to making Ogun state the first choice destination of most of Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, enabling peaceful coexistence and political stability within the hitherto politically volatile state, Amosun is also interested in who succeeds him.
It is a popular saying that we do not expect to do same thing, same way and expect a different result, this is aptly why Governor Amosun is yet to unveil his anointed candidate as this was one of the grave mistakes his immediate predecessor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel made in his choice of a successor in 2011. It would be recalled that OGD, as Daniel is widely called anointed his then close ally and former MD of Gateway Holdings, Mr. Gboyega Nasir Isiaka to be his successor, but his ill-calculated early endorsement caused serious animosity within Daniel’s party, PDP that eventually culminated into the defeat of Daniel’s candidate who actually couldn’t get the PDP ticket(Gen. Tunji Olurin, an ally of Former President Obasanjo got the PDP ticket) but went on to use PPN. In a nutshell, PDP, PPN, Daniel’s choice Isiaka and  Gen. Olurin all lost and that was how Senator Amosun became the 4th executive governor of the gateway state. Though Amosun hasn’t presented anybody as his anointed candidate, but he has repeatedly emphasized that his support will be for the Yewa-Awori people of Ogun west; a senatorial district in Ogun state that’s yet to produce governor. But the time is now, further delay is dangerous, the Governor must anoint who he is supporting now – thank God he has promised after Ramadan, so that fence-mending can commence in earnest and all the ground work will kickstart immediately.
For not producing Governor in the last 42 years, many see Ogun west as less of the other two districts in Ogun state, but  Ogun west is home to the State’s biggest industrial estate that is situated in Nigeria’s arguably most industrialized local government area, Ado-odo/Ota.  Yewa South, Yewa North, Ipokia and Imeko Afon are the remaining Local Govt Areas that make up Ogun West.
 
 
 
For Gov. Amosun to succeed where OGD failed as regards ensuring an Ogun west man becoming governor in 2019, I think unusual succession plan is the masterstroke that can be deployed. Looking at the electoral value of the APC, which is the Governor’s party, one can say the stakes are high. Yes, they are high as there exist no strong, formidable and coordinated opposition in the state. Like a friend once said, the opposition are too scattered. But beyond political parties, three oppositions the Governor must be aware of are; the seeming disunity in Ogun west where he is to pick his party’s candidate, the well coordinated, well funded & articulately projected ‘Ijebu Agenda’ and the lastly the ‘see no good in an outgoing governor’ syndrome of our people. Of the three party-less oppositions; the strongest is the ‘Ijebu Agenda’, followed by the seeming disunity of the Yewa-Awori. Alas, there is always a way out for an enigmatic political heavyweight like Senator Amosun who has won elections in very scary, unfavourable and unbelievable circumstances. His 2019 project if well played won’t be an exception.
 
In 2011, as the candidate of the ACN, Amosun, a politician with good exposure having served in the National Assembly & having an occultic follower-ship within Ogun central as a result of his goodwill & performance as a senator was able to defeat a greenhorn in person of GNI, as Isiaka is fondly called. For Amosun to have his successor in 2019 win the election, a man with good political exposure, track records in public service who is tested, trusted and very popular within the Ogun west senatorial district with massive followership should be considered from among the aspirants. Anything short of a man with a household name & verifiable achievements to the betterment of the people of Ogun west will spell doom for the APC across Ogun west in 2019. If the APC has a good candidate as described, such a candidate will dwarf GNI’s new party, African Democratic Congress, ADC’s influence within the senatorial district and the presumed party of the Lagos West senator will come distant third. Conveniently such  APC candidate will amass to himself close to 80% of the Ogun west votes, considering the electoral value of the APC. It is also worthy of note that such candidate must have good political base in Ado-odo/Ota, Ipokia, Yewa South and Yewa North considering the density of voters in those local government areas.
 
In Ogun central, considering all the political battle to expect, the APC despite the many achievements of Gov. Amosun might only get about 45% of the district’s votes, but if Sen. Amosun can have his name on posters & the ballot, as a candidate seeking votes for himself and not just endorsing a candidate, the Egba nation will surely compensate him and his party with more votes. The permutations here are simple, every human has the spirit of insatiability and his Oliver Twist tendencies are innate. With the orchestration going on in Ijebu, a strong deputy governorship from Egba for the Ijebu agenda will be parasitic to the bloc votes of Ogun central, without forgetting that a former speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Dimeji Bankole is still very ambitious. The antidote to this is simple, Gov. Amosun must grudgingly please kindly seek return to the Senate, so the APC can secure nothing less than 70% of votes in Ogun central.
 
How many votes can APC get in Ogun East, with an exposed Ogun west man as its gubernatorial candidate, a good senatorial candidate in Ogun East and great grassroot politicians flying the House of Representative and House of Assembly tickets, the party despite the ongoing Ijebu Guber project? It will not be less than 30% and with all these, a jinx would have been broken and one name would have been gazetted in the book of history and that name is Ibikunle Oluwatoyin Ikhleel Amosun, Ajiri omo Oye himself.
 
One big lesson, Gov. Amosun must learn is is that it is only divine to make someone a Governor and get his 100% loyalty and within the political clime here, the few men that have enjoyed that include National Leader of the APC, who you fondly call Asiwaju of the Universe, Bola Tinubu and the incumbent Senate  President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, the duo can’t even boast they have it all rosy. One would be caught dazed that a friendship of decades between Kano State Governor, Alh. Umar Ganduje and his predecessor, Sen. Rabiu Kwankwanso could be axed, or who knew a supposed greenhorn in person of Chief Willie Obiano could call the bluff of his predecessor and benefactor, Mr.Peter Obi in Anambra politics. Governor Amosun sir, you are close to making history, kindly do this and see how God will reward you.  
 
Omooba ‘Damilare Oloyede; a media practitioner & public affair analyst wrote from Ado-odo; Ado-odo/Ota Local government, Ogun State via omoobadare@yahoo.

 

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