NIGERIA’S 2024 GDP GROWTH OUTPERFORMS GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS AND EXPERTS’ PROJECTIONS……..DR AKINSIJU

POLICY STATEMENT 021 ISSUED BY THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND POLICY INITIATIVE (IMPI)

NIGERIA’S 2024 GDP GROWTH OUTPERFORMS GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS AND EXPERTS’ PROJECTIONS

The value of Nigeria’s 2024 aggregate outputs of both goods and services as reflected in the year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a complete affirmation of the impact of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms which started on 29th May 2023.

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has asserted in a statement issued by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi M. Akinsiju.

The kernel of the analysis put forward by the Policy group is stated as follows:

“At 3.40 per cent full-year 2024, GDP growth, the performance of the Nigerian economy in the 12 months of last year beats projections made by global institutions and experts. The 3.40 per cent growth in the value of the economy is an increase of 0.66 per cent from the 2.74 per cent recorded in 2023. The 2024 aggregate GDP figure is driven by the 3.84 per cent economic performance recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.

“The 3.40 percentage growth of the Nigerian GDP in 2024 is the highest on record between 2022 and 2024. The country’s real GDP was stated at 3.25 per cent in 2022. It declined to 2.86 percent in 2023 from where it increased to 3.4 percent in 2024.

” Given various projections on GDP’s potential growth at the beginning of every fiscal year, we collated and compared the National Bureau of Statistics issued real GDP figure for 2024 with the projections made by global institutions that include the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, PwC (Pricewaterhouse Cooper) and the influential Nigeria based Financial Derivative Company for Nigeria.

Our analysis showed that the IMF, after three projections adjustments beginning from a low of 2.9 per cent GDP in 2024, settled for a 3.30 per cent projected growth. However, like the projection made by the World Bank, which projected the economy to grow by the same 3.30 per cent, this projection fell short of Nigeria’s 2024 actual real GDP growth by 1.10 per cent

“In the same vein, Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company aligned with the IMF and World Bank projections, stating that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.30 per cent in 2024. PwC, one of the top four global accounting powerhouses, availed the Nigerian economy a lower-level benefit of the doubt when it projected that the country’s GDP would grow marginally by 3.1%.

“As things turned out, all the global institutions missed their projections of Nigeria’s economic growth in 2024 by more than one percentage point on the downside, however, the GDP projection by the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Central Bank of Nigeria did not match the 3.76 per cent GDP projected growth by both the FGN and the CBN for 2024.

” Meanwhile, we have reviewed Nigeria’s 2025 GDP projections by the same entities. In collating their projections for GDP 2025, we observed that there’s a threshold difference between projections by global bodies and domestic entities. So, while IMF projected a lowly 3.2 percent real GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025 the World Bank forecasted that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.5 per cent in 2025. PwC also made projections within this narrow range, projecting a 3.3 per cent GDP growth in 2025.

“These projections are in stark contrast with those of the CBN and Rewane’s Financial Derivatives Company. The CBN projected that the economy will expand by 4.17 percent this year while the Financial Derivative Company has projected a potential 6 percent GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025.

“From our standpoint, it appears the global institutions have a deficient understanding of the dynamics of the ongoing reforms being superintended by the Tinubu administration. What has become evident in Nigeria’s economic change reality is the wholesome transmutation from a handout, populist model to a market-driven economic model.

“Though there are still some vestiges of the old model in some segments of the economy, we can submit that the reforms have in many ways released the economy from the stranglehold of growth constraints like price control brought on by subsidies.

“We, therefore, align with the 4.7 per cent to 6 per cent GDP growth range projected by the CBN and Financial Derivative Company. Indeed, our modelling of the Nigerian production and fiscal spheres indicates a possible 5.4 per cent GDP growth in 2025.

“This is on the back of the sustained decline in the inflation rate, reduced exchange rate volatility, increase in oil production, enhanced commercial exploitation of solid minerals, possible decline of interest rates through the year, continued foreign portfolio and foreign direct investments inflow into the country.”